Tuesday, March 25, 2008

History of forex trading



The origin of FOREX trading traces its history to centuries ago. Different currencies and the need to exchange them had existed since the Babylonians. They are credited with the first use of paper notes and receipts. Speculation hardly ever happened, and certainly the enormous speculative activity in the market today would have been frowned upon.

In those days, the value of goods were expressed in terms of other goods(also called as the Barter System). The obvious limitations of such a system encouraged establishing more generally accepted mediums of exchange. It was important that a common base of value could be established. In some economies, items such as teeth, feathers even stones served this purpose, but soon various metals, in particular gold and silver, established themselves as an accepted means of payment as well as a reliable storage of value. Trade was carried among people of Africa, Asia etc through this system.


Coins were initially minted from the preferred metal and in stable political regimes, the introduction of a paper form of governmental I.O.U. during the Middle Ages also gained acceptance. This type of I.O.U. was introduced more successfully through force than through persuasion and is now the basis of today’s modern currencies.


Before the First World war, most Central banks supported their currencies with convertibility to gold. However, the gold exchange standard had its weaknesses of boom-bust patterns. As an economy strengthened, it would import a great deal from out of the country until it ran down its gold reserves required to support its money; as a result, the money supply would diminish, interest rates escalate and economic activity slowed to the point of recession. Ultimately, prices of commodities had hit bottom, appearing attractive to other nations, who would sprint into buying fury that injected the economy with gold until it increased its money supply, drive down interest rates and restore wealth into the economy.. However, for this type of gold exchange, there was not necessarily a Centrals bank need for full coverage of the government's currency reserves. This did not occur very often, however when a group mindset fostered this disastrous notion of converting back to gold in mass, panic resulted in so-called "Run on banks " The combination of a greater supply of paper money without the gold to cover led to devastating inflation and resulting political instability. The Great Depression and the removal of the gold standard in 1931 created a serious lull in FOREX market activity. From 1931 until 1973, the FOREX market went through a series of changes. These changes greatly affected the global economies at the time and speculation in the FOREX markets during these times was little.


In order to protect local national interests, increased foreign exchange controls were introduced to prevent market forces from punishing monetary irresponsibility.


Near the end of World War II, the Bretton Woods agreement was reached on the initiative of the USA in July 1944. The conference held in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire rejected John Maynard Keynes suggestion for a new world reserve currency in favor of a system built on the US Dollar. International institutions such as the IMF, The World Bank and GATT were created in the same period as the emerging victors of WWII searched for a way to avoid the destabilizing monetary crises leading to the war. The Bretton Woods agreement resulted in a system of fixed exchange rates that reinstated The Gold Standard partly, fixing the USD at $35.00 per ounce of Gold and fixing the other main currencies to the dollar, initially intended to be on a permanent basis.


The Bretton Woods system came under increasing pressure as national economies moved in different directions during the 1960’s. A number of realignments held the system alive for a long time but eventually Bretton Woods collapsed in the early 1970’s following president Nixon's suspension of the gold convertibility in August 1971. The dollar was not any longer suited as the sole international currency at a time when it was under severe pressure from increasing US budget and trade deficits.


The last few decades have seen foreign exchange trading develop into the world’s largest global market. Restrictions on capital flows have been removed in most countries, leaving the market forces free to adjust foreign exchange rates according to their perceived values.


The European Economic Community introduced a new system of fixed exchange rates in 1979, the European Monetary System. The quest continued in Europe for currency stability with the 1991 signing of The Maastricht treaty. This was to not only fix exchange rates but also actually replace many of them with the Euro in 2002. London was, and remains the principal offshore market. In the 1980s, it became the key center in the Eurodollar market when British banks began lending dollars as an alternative to pounds in order to maintain their leading position in global finance.


In Asia, the lack of sustainability of fixed foreign exchange rates has gained new relevance with the events in South East Asia in the latter part of 1997, where currency after currency was devalued against the US dollar, leaving other fixed exchange rates in particular in South America also looking very vulnerable.


While commercial companies have had to face a much more volatile currency environment in recent years, investors and financial institutions have discovered a new playground. The FOREX exchange market initially worked under the central banks and the governmental institutions but later on it accommodated the various institutions, at present it also includes the dot com booms and the world wide web. The size of the FOREX market now dwarfs any other investment market. The foreign exchange market is the largest financial market in the world. Approximately 1.9 trillion dollars are traded daily in the foreign exchange market. It is estimated that more than USD 1,200 Billion are traded every day. It can be said easily that FOREX market is a lucrative opportunity for the modern day savvy investor.

its is the main reson for Why So Many Forex Traders Lose

hi,

my viewer

The Studies on forex-trading have shown that 80% of forex traders lose and Pay 20% that win. Then 95% of those that lose quit after their first loss, leaving only 5% which continue and later join the 20% winners with more experience.

What does these figures portend for would-be forex traders?

The simple way of putting these stats is to say that out of every 100 forex traders, only 20 would be in profit, 4 would lose, but continue trying till they are good at it and the rest 76 would lose and quit trading for life. The basic question now is:Why would too many traders lose?This is a big question. But the simple answer is:The 80% that lose trade with EMOTION. If the reason is that simple, why is it that the 76 lose and quit. Because, they fail to adjust and trade without emotion. Most traders learn forex, practice only for a week or two, load their account and go live, and as expected, with the little experience on their side, they crash and burn. Then quitting seems to be the next best option. No brother!Don't!!Let's solve your problem!!!

From personal experience and encounter with some traders, I have discovered two major reasons why they lose:

1. Not following a trading Strategy:
Most traders do not have a trading strategy to follow and as a result, they gamble the forex, entering when they notice a movement in any direction. For instance, when they see a currency pair going up, they immediately buy;and when they see it moving down they immediately sell, without knowing the underlying causes of such sporadic movements. This is purely emotion at work, hence these group of traders are called Emotional Traders. They end up joining spontaneously at the end of these sporadic movements, thereby sustaining losses each time and saying things like:"Forex is a Game of Luck. "No. That is what they are playing-Game of Luck. Some others watch the market with too many trading strategies, jumping from one to another after a trade that did not favor them. What do they get?A losing Streak, since they may jump into a strategy when it gives a false signal, and jump out when a good one is generated. As we all know, their is no single trading strategy that is up to 90% right not to talk of 100%. You disagree?I think you should do a search on Google. com for one of such. The reason is that the forces that drive the market are countless and since no single person can harness all these forces in placing their trade, we can only tell where the currencies would go on the long run. This is why the Big Dogs are the only almost 100% Right traders in the forex. They Harness as much of the driving forces as they could and place a long term trade with their analysis. These set of run-around traders, when they have enough frustration from their losing streak would generally think it's high time they quit.

2. Not Using Money Management:
Even the richest Central Bank in the world cannot dictate for so long how and where the forex market would or should go by using all the money at their disposal to trade, given the fact that the forex turns out about $2trillion daily. If this is true, how much do you have in your account that makes you think you would be right all the time, or even at any point in time, thereby using large lot sizes to place your trades?An instance would be a trader who has $1500 in his account. Because he wants to trade large lots to make fast gains and double account within the shortest possible time, he chooses a very large leverage, say 1:500(This is what I call Leverage Abuse, because that is not to say that Large leverages are bad. In fact, it's the best)and ends up placing 1 standard lot. For such a person, the odd needs to be against him only for 150pips to wipe out his balance or 120pips to get a margin call with a remaining balance of less than $300. Money Management is Key. I tell my forex students, "You cannot run from using Money Management. "

You think I am lying?Let's face it. If instead of trading 5micro lots using money management, you start trading with 1 standard lot, then, soon after just a little loss, you would have lost a large chunk of your money and what next, you won't be able to trade those large lots, in fact it would even be difficult to trade 1 mini lot. And at that time, whether you like it or not, you would have to trade 5 micro lots. Nobody guarantees where the forex goes at any point in time, hence many experts would include disclaimers in their trading signals. So always risk as little as possible. I would always advice 3% Money management to beginners. That way, you need more than 33 straight losses to lose all your $1000. And with my trading strategy, I have not encountered as much as 4 straight losses, not to talk of 33 or more. , nevertheless, I still maintain 3% money management. With such a small money management, over some few weeks(16 weeks to be precise), you could turn $1000 into $22000. So how do I use money management to tell How Many lots I should be using in a trade?

Assuming you are going to be using 3% just like I do on an account of $1000, then, Calculate 3% of your account balance. 3/100 x 1000 equals $30. That's how much you can afford to lose should the trade go against you. Not more than that, though could be less depending on your expertise or trading strategy. Using the risk you just calculated, Determine how much you would be making per pip. Just divide the risk by the number of pips of stop Loss you would be using. $30/70pips equals $0. 42/pip. And as you may have known before now, 1 micro lot equals $0. 10/pip, 1 mini lot equals $1/pip and 1 standard lot equals $10/pip. From these, you would deduce that $0. 42 would be about 4 micro lots.

Sunday, March 23, 2008

Best Forex Training - Forex Training With A Log

Amateur traders often look to external sources for the best Forex training opportunities. They try to find the latest 'systems' and purchase hundreds of dollars worth of books and videos. But one important (not to mention free) source that they often ignore is their own trading log.


Many traders know that they should keep a log (or record) of their own trading activities. But what kind of information should they keep, and how will that information help them improve on their trading?


Log Entry Detail #1 - Entry and Exit reasons

One of the most important details to keep is the reason(s) for entering or exiting your trades. If you entered a trade (for whatever reason), and you made money, you may then go back to analyze what went right for you. However, if you lost money on that trade, then you can also go back and think about how you could have done things differently.


Without a record of your trade entry or exit reasons, you won't know what went wrong or what went right. Many retail traders keep making the same mistakes over and over again because they don't know what they're doing wrong... there's no way for them to know because they don't keep a trading log!


Log Entry Detail #2 - Your Feelings When Trading

Many traders who keep a trading log unfortunately don't keep a record of this detail. They enter into their logs only objective information: entry/exit criteria, lot size, as well as the time and date. All these are facts that can be verified.


But they leave out the one important subjective piece of information: their feelings before, during and after a trade. As a human being, emotions play a big part in influencing the decisions that we make; and in the world of Forex trading this is no different.


It's important to be aware of our own feelings when trading, so that when we look back to reflect on what we could have improved, we can better remember how we felt when trading at the time.


Were you confident before entering into the trade? What about just after the trade? Did you have any feelings of regret that influenced you into prematurely exit a trade? Or did you feel that prices were certain to go up again, and thus held onto a worsening short position?


Keeping a record of your feelings will help you become more aware of your psychological state when trading. This can be very useful in identifying your own trading patterns and behaviour, so that you can improve on them.

How To Trade Forex

Before you start trading Forex you must learn how to do it successfully. The Forex market is one of the most difficult markets in the world, so you must be a good and skillful trader in order to make money.


The first thing you must do is to read everything you can about Forex. Make some searches on your favorite search engine and read ebooks, forums and articles. In order to learn how to make money in Forex, you don't have to buy expensive courses or books. You can and should read all the free resources that you can.


In a second step, you can open a demo account on a Forex broker. Most brokers offer you free demo accounts. Use this offer to your advantage. Practice your trading strategy and keep learning about the market's behavior and how to trade Forex.


This is probably the most important thing in Forex. It allows you to gain experience and improve your trading without risking any money.


When you feel you already know some things about Forex but need some professional edge, then you can buy some ebook or course. You don't have to buy the most expensive products on the market. Use your good sense to decide exactly what you need to improve your trading, and then look for a good product that can give you all that knowledge.


With this new knowledge, you should test it on your demo account. You should trade on a demo account until you're making consistent profits. When you're making good profits with small risks, you can start considering opening a real account.


Before you open a real account make sure you make a complete due diligence about the Forex broker. Make sure the broker is regulated and that you can be sure your money is safe with them.


Finally, start trading using tight risk management rules. Don't risk more than 3% of your account on a single trade. Use small stop losses to protect your account and avoid leverage.

Forex Trading Advice - If You Don't Have This You Will NEVER Be a Winner!

If there is one bit of forex advice that you can take which will determine whether you have what it takes to be a winner at forex then you need to think about the question I am going to ask in this article... If you think you can win at forex trading:

What's your trading edge?

A trading edge is - the reason you will win, when 95% of traders lose and lose quickly, so what differentiates you from the vast bulk of losers:

What's your edge?

If you think following the news, a vendors mechanical system, or day trading, to name three losing ways of trading - you don't have an edge.

So what is an edge and how do you get it?

The answer is you need understand the following equation for forex success and here it is:

Learning the RIGHT knowledge + having Confidence in Your Knowledge (and knowing your edge) + The Discipline to Follow your plan - Forex Success

Forget about following forex trading systems with simulated profits - you will NEVER Win. Even if you find a profitable one, you need to know how and why it works and how it gives you an edge - success is on your shoulders, no one else's and by far the best way to achieve success is to do what all successful traders do:

Take responsibility and do it yourself - ever heard of a successful trader who is a follower? No neither have I - so don't try it.

Forex trading success to a degree relies on method - but if you don't have confidence in your method, you will never have the discipline to apply it and without discipline, you simply have no method at all.

A trading edge comes from understanding what you are doing and why it gives you an edge. It can be anything, everyone's edge is different - but you must understand what it is and why it will give you success, when 95% of traders wipe themselves out.

Forex trading looks easy and learning the basics is - anyone can learn to trade forex but very few win and the reasons never change:

Following others, no confidence and lack of discipline etc

Forex trading can give you a life changing income and to achieve this is not easy - of course its not! If there are big rewards to be made then it's going to be hard to achieve success. There is however a big difference between something being impossible and something being achievable - forex success is within reach of anyone.

Just work smart, have confidence in your edge and the discipline to apply your plan and you can achieve forex trading success.

Forex Trading Tip - 2 Simple Powerful Ways to Increase Your Profits

f you want to trade forex and want regular profits then following these simple tips can change an average or losing trader into a trader earning triple digit profits. Most forex advice would not agree with them but that's no problem 95% of traders lose! Let's look at them and how they can change your profit potential.

1. Understand the 80 - 20 Rule

We have covered this in greater detail in our other articles but in brief it postulates that 80% of our results come from 20% of our efforts.

This is true in many areas of life and is true for most traders in forex , they simply over trade and lose. The lesson is cut - you're trading down and only take the best high odd opportunities.

Many traders think they need to trade all the time like day traders, or always need to be in the market, just in case they miss a move.

Well traders that are in the market all the time and don't tend to win they tend to get a wipeout for their troubles.

The high odds trades don't come around very often.

When they do you can execute your trading signal - but not until conditions are ripe to enter.

To give you an example, I know a trader that trades less than once a month and makes triple digit annual profits.

High trading frequency does not mean you will make more money in forex trading, on the contrary it improves your chances of losing.

2. Do NOT Diversify

You here a lot about diversifying cuts risk and all manner of technical equations are bought out to support the view - but its not so.

Diversification in most cases does not cut your risk but simply dilutes your profit potential dramatically. If you have a small account under $50,000 dollars you don't have the luxury of diversifying anyway, so don't bother - you will end up risking so little your guaranteed to lose, as normal volatility hits your stop.

If you see a good trade, load it up and risk as much as you can afford.

If you have the odds on your side then hit it and have the courage of your conviction to trade it for all its worth.

FINALLY

These are simple tips but they make total sense they make you focus only on high odds trades and they make sure that's all you focus on without the distraction of other marginal ones.

Try these two tips, there simple and they will help you enjoy currency trading success.

Forex Trading - Tips and Tricks

Always keep your trading systems simple. Too much information at one time on your trading screen could confuse and delay your decision to trade.


Broker - A lot of Forex brokers are in business only to make money from yours. Read forums, blogs and chats around the net to get an unbiased opinion before you choose your broker.


Sample the Environment - It is important to remember that many registered and online trading agents have fictitious platforms which mirror the real-time, live platform clients register and trade on. It is not only advisable, but it is also actively encouraged to initially open a 'dummy' account where fictitious Forex trades can be undertaken that closely reflect what real trades may be like when they are eventually undertaken. Such platforms are designed to give those that are new to Forex a feel and an idea what real trades on live markets will be like when the decision is made to begin trading.


Buy low, Sell high - Forex trading does not involve the physical purchase of the currencies, but rather involves contracts for amount and exchange rate of currency pairs. The potential for profit comes from the fluctuations in the currency exchange market. Regular daily fluctuations in the value of one currency against another give a clear advantage over conventional stock market equities and instruments. See Trading Illustration Only


Manage Losing Positions - Trades will sometimes inevitably on occasion go against you. It is important to accept them as an inherent part of trading. Cut your losses and move on having learned from any mistakes made. Always remember however that you will not be able to trade without losing some positions. It is important to manage these well.


Patience - Do not over-trade your account. Good money management practice is important and will help with profitability. This will go a long way in helping you develop a strategy which fits with your personal trading capital. Operate a trailing stop loss policy say 15 to 20 pips behind the trade. Minimize your good trades as long as you are confident.


Flexible Mindset - Don't set yourself false targets and expectations. Experts will tell you trading is not an exact science and setting oneself unattainable targets will only lead to frustration and feeling of failure when these targets are not met. Always maintain an open mind. The market is a constantly changing environment tunes your mindset to understand this.


And lastly but definitely not least, it is most important for all market participants to remember that unique experiences and past performances do not guarantee future results. Trading results can vary in any combination of circumstances. If you do not have extra capital that you can afford to lose, you should not trade in the foreign exchange market.

Invest wisely and take advantage of the resources and technology available to you in the market.

Point-and-Figure Charts - Forex Charts That Show You The Money!

Wouldn't it be great if you could find a charting system that instead of focusing on minutes, half-hours, hours, days, and weeks, actually followed and tracked the value itself? Point-and-figure charts are charts that do precisely that: they follow the money.


Point-and-figure charts are charts that follow changes in prices, and not time. Many charts are set up on a time scale, and comparisons are then made between the price as it varies from hour to hour or day to day.


These charts are very different in that any column from a point-and-figure chart can represent any amount of time. There is no set amount of time for each figure. Movements take place only when the minimum determined price moves. If the value doesn't change, no new markings appear on the chart.


Point-and-figure charts differ in several ways from other types of popular charting, but there are 3 major differences that set point-and-figure charts apart.
1. They have simple, well-defined trading rules
2. They eliminate the clutter of price reversals that are below a minimum box value
3. There is no time factor.


Point-and-figure charting was first credited to Charles Dow, who used them around the turn of the century to make a killing on the stock market. Because the technical aspects of point-and-figure were sound, this strategy was picked up for use in analyzing other markets, as well.


Another major difference between point-and-figure charting and some of its technical counterparts is that it has a relatively strict and simple system of buying and selling, so you don't need to be a math whiz or rocket scientist to figure out when to do what. A "box" is a measurement of a price movement.


If you see a box of X's, the overall value went up. A box of O's means the overall value went down. When a box of X's has an X one higher than the last box's, it's time to buy. When a box of O's goes one below the last column of O's, then it's time to sell. There are variations, but that is the base system.


What's sometimes bizarre about business is when everyone gets caught up in a new system or trend and they're so intent on adding to it and perfecting it that an old system that works stops getting used. Where's the common sense in that?


If you're trading, you want to be able to keep track of the money. If there's a charting system that let's you follow the money, and make a profit, who gives a darn if it's trendy or not? Going back to common sense, point-and-figure charting is the one method that shows you the money, because it's the charting system that only moves with the money

The Meaning of FOREX Price Charts and How to Use Them

There is one very important factor that you should consider with great care if you are willing to become a successful, profitable Forex trader. This ever important factor that must be always present in the trader's portfolio, is the ability to read the charts.


The beauty of FOREX charts, as opposed to charts used for, say, daytrading stocks, is that they are pretty easy to interpret and use. They're a reflection of a slower-moving, stable economy (the one of a country) compared to the future and daily drama of company reports, Wall street analysts and shareholder demands.


And, unlike stocks, currency charts rarely spend much time in tight trading ranges and have the tendency to develop strong trends (even though the FX market may be volatile, it's more predictable). And, rather than tens of thousands of stocks to analyze, you only have a few mayor currencies to trade.


The most common types of price bars, used in FOREX trading, are the Bar Chart and the Candlestick chart:

Bars Charts - Price bars are a linear representation (a line)of a period of time. This enables the viewer to see a graphic representation summarizing the activity of a specific time frame. For example they can be one minute or five-minute time intervals depending on the system you are using. Each bar has similar characteristics and tells the viewer several important pieces of information. First, the highest point of the bar represents the highest price that was achieved during that time period. The lowest point of the bar represents the lowest price during the same period. Regular bars display a small dot on the left side of the bar which represents the opening price of the period and the small dot on the right side represents the closing price of the period.


Candlesticks - Japanese Candlesticks, or simply Candlesticks as they are now known, are used to represent the same information as Price bars. The only difference is that the difference between the open and close form the body of a box which is displayed with a color inside. A red color means that the close was lower than the open, and the blue color represents that the close was higher than the open. If the box has a line going up from the box it represents the high and is called the wick. If the box has a line going down from the box, it represents the low and is called the tail. Many interpretations can be made from these "candlesticks" and many books have been written on the art of interpreting these bars ( Visit: http://www.1-forex.com).


So, the main thing to keep in mind between the two types of price charts is this:

Candlestick charts are similar to bar charts in that the top tip of a vertical line represents the high and bottom tip represents the low. However, market activity between the OPEN and the CLOSE is represented differently by the use of candlestick bodies.

Because of their colored bodies, candles provide greater visual detail in their chart patterns than bar charts. Which is why many experts recommend you become intimately familiar with Candlestick charts.

The word "forex" means

Foreign Exchange (ForEex) trading is simply the exchanging of one currency for another - Each Forex trade can theoretically be viewed as a 'spread ' trade where to buy one currency you must sell another. Convention dictates that currencies are measured in units per 1 USD. For example, 1 USD is worth approximately 125 JPY (Japanese Yen) or 1 USD is worth approximately 1.5000 CHF (Swiss Francs). As a result, when USD/JPY appreciates in value, it is the USD that has appreciated in value relative to the JPY and not vice-versa. Position-wise, to own or be 'Long' USDJPY means that you are long the USD and concurrently short the JPY. USD, therefore, is the default 'lead' currency.